Civil War Looms Large in Ethiopia and South Sudan as External Powers Circle

Concerns are mounting over the potential for civil wars in Ethiopia and South Sudan, which could plunge the Horn of Africa into a deep humanitarian and security crisis.

External powers, including Iran and Russia, are showing interest in the region, potentially exacerbating tensions.

Ethiopia faces a volatile situation in the Tigray region, where a power struggle could spark another civil war. This conflict could quickly involve neighboring Eritrea, leading to a broader regional crisis.

The Netherlands-based Clingendael Institute has warned that such a conflict would result in immense death and destruction, given the large militaries involved. The previous war in Tigray alone resulted in the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives.

External powers like Iran and Russia are keen to exploit these conflicts to consolidate their influence around the Red Sea. Iran seeks to partner with Sudan to secure naval bases that could support attacks on international shipping, while Russia aims to enhance its power projection into the Mediterranean.

In South Sudan, tensions between President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar are escalating, threatening to undo years of progress toward peace.

Recent clashes in the northeastern region have raised fears of a return to full-scale civil war, jeopardizing the fragile power-sharing agreement forged in 2023.

The United Nations has warned of an alarming regression in the path to peace, with violence involving security forces and armed factions associated with Machar. The African Union Commission has urged an immediate cessation of hostilities to prevent further destabilization.

A civil war in either Ethiopia or South Sudan would have far-reaching consequences, exacerbating refugee crises and increasing migration flows to Europe and the Gulf states.

The instability could also benefit Salafi-jihadi groups, creating a broader security challenge across Africa.

As tensions rise, international observers are calling for urgent diplomatic efforts to prevent these conflicts from escalating further. The situation remains precarious, with both countries teetering on the edge of renewed violence.