Nigeria’s Crude Output Falls Again, Weakens OPEC+ Performance

Nigeria’s crude oil production declined in October, dragging down the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+, output target for the month. Libya and Venezuela also recorded drops in production.

According to Reuters, OPEC’s overall oil output rose by only 30,000 barrels per day in October a sharp slowdown compared to September’s 330,000 bpd increase despite agreements to boost supply.

Data from OPEC’s Monthly Oil Market Report revealed that Nigeria’s crude production, which had hovered between 1.3 million and 1.4 million barrels per day for the first half of 2025, briefly reached 1.5 million bpd in July but fell again to 1.3 million bpd by September.

The Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, Bayo Ojulari, attributed the decline to industrial disputes involving the Dangote Refinery and petroleum workers’ unions.

Global oil prices also slipped as market sentiment weakened and the US dollar strengthened. Brent crude fell to $64.38 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate dropped to $60.46. The OPEC Basket price declined to $66.72 per barrel.

Analysts from ANZ and IG Markets noted that the negative sentiment in global markets led investors to exit energy holdings, putting further pressure on crude prices.

Meanwhile, OPEC+ announced plans to increase production by 137,000 bpd in December but said it would pause further hikes in early 2026. Market experts, however, warned that this measure might not be enough to stabilise prices in the short term.